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Day 45 Expiration Jan 2022

Trust you are having a Merry season. So January is always an interesting. Notes and trades:

  • Normally. I do not do a Jan Vcall because the market tends to have a big surge, in the last part of the year. That why we do the Christmas trade. Unfortunately, Dec 1-jan 15 is no uptreading (yet). That seasonal pattern has been very consistent since 1950.
  • Tested VPUT at 1620/1610, 30 cent, all the way down to 1560/1570 all that 30 cents. And after 20 mins or so, the all filled. Pretty sure you can be sub 1600 for 30 cents.
  • Tested 2440/2450 at 30 cents. filled. Normally don’t do a VCall in Jan. but thinking about it as the Rut was down trending, and now going sideways.
  • Chart: downtrend. Now flagging. Sideways action. The tendency, is for a flag to continue in the direction it was going. 60-70 percent of the time. That still means 30/40 percent of the time it reverses.
  • Candlestick. Looks like a bullish pattern (may be an up day tomorrow)
  • 200/50 sort of crossed (death cross), and then moved back up a little. Common in real time, as every day, the 200/50 average change.
  • 5/20 or 10/30 moving average. Downtrending.

Update 10:31 am. VPUT filled at 1560/1570 for 30 cents.

Thinking about VCall. but going to wait. See what happens in the next couple days. If Rut breaks. 2220/2230 on it way up again. If breaks 2150 on its way down. Waiting for the market to tell which to play. Rut is flagging, maybe even, wedging.

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